NOAA 1400 Update

| September 12, 2018 | 32 Comments

flo 1400 12 sep

NOAA Link

822
WTNT31 KNHC 121757
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

…FLORENCE’S PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BUT THE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI…755 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 mb…27.99 inches

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude
71.8 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph
(26 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease
in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the
coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible through
Thursday morning. Although slow weakening is expected to begin by
late Thursday, Florence is still forecast to be an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast late Thursday
and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy located about 100 miles northeast of
Florence’s eye recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 948 mb (27.99 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers…9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC…6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC…6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC…4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC…4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border…2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Coastal North Carolina…20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina…5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states…3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Category: Blue Skies

Comments (32)

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  1. 2/17 Air Cav says:

    All right. I’ll bite. Are you fixated on the weather or is it that people who access TAH don’t have a pc, mac, cell phone, laptop, radio, or TV. Is this a Navy thing? I gotta know.

  2. AW1Ed says:

    Don’t like it, don’t open it.

  3. Wilted Willy says:

    I hope that any of you in that direction please take heed and leave now while you have the chance? Please don’t stay and ride it out, this storm is much too dangerous! I hope all of you are ok and don’t get any damage!
    Take care all!!
    Willy

    • thebesig says:

      I saw clouds moving from northeast towards the southwest this morning. This was in the southeastern quarter of our sky.

      Clouds high in the sky in my area generally move in one direction, unless we’re in tornado conditions and they’re circulating in the sky.

      I’m not in an area under an evacuation order though. The rains start early tomorrow for us, and the winds follow suite.

  4. Jeff LPH 3, 63-66 says:

    I wonder what happened to El Nino. I really haven’t followed Florence because of it’s direction away from Florida. I commented in the past that I believe that there wasn’t enough sea water evaporation to produce enough salt to sink below the surface water displacing the warm water and forcing cooler water to the surface. You do not hear about this effect very much and most of the weather people don’t know about this unless they heard about it from one of the late Dr. Gray’s speeches at the National Hurricane conferences. I heard about it at one of the conferences I go to before he passed away.

  5. SSG E says:

    Parris Island issued an evacuation order and planned to move the recruits to Albany, GA, but yesterday evening they cancelled those plans and recalled all personnel to base, since the storm had moved north:

    https://www.mcrdpi.marines.mil/?videoid=624447&dvpcc=false#DVIDSVideoPlayer103998

    …then this morning, projections show that Florence is going to hang a left and head their way…don’t know if it’s too late to reverse course again, and get folks the hell out of there? I read that the barracks are built to withstand a Cat 3, but man, it’s gonna get wet!

  6. 2/17 Air Cav says:

    It’s a Dr. Big Foot Sole Cushion. You customize the cushion to fit your shoe size by cutting along the dotted lines provided.

  7. AW1Ed says:

    I posted the updated message and graphic with the idea some may need to know Flo’s estimated timeline. Your penis and zucchini charts don’t convey that; everyone already knows this storm is a brute.

  8. Jeff LPH 3, 63-66 says:

    I noticed that TS Isaac is southeast of Cuba and has the HWRF and NAM noodles passing over Cuba and heading for South Florida. Still early to tell what it’s actual direction will be. Maybe I’ll just crank up the old Drake R7 shortwave receiver and the Universal 8000 decoder and get some Facimile (FAX) sea surface temps from the Marine HF bands.

    • Tallywhagger says:

      The R7 is still as handsome as they come. I’m still running a TS-940 and a TS-50 for mobile, should I ever actually get to go anywhere 🙂

      • Jeff LPH 3, 63-66 says:

        You can’t beat some of those Collins, Hallicrafters, Hammerlund boat anchor SW receivers. I had a Mil surplus fax receiver that used if I remember 17 in.wide paper and carbon paper rolls and worked it off the R7.

  9. Sapper3307 says:

    Fort Bragg’s Class Six shelves are empty!

  10. 5th/77thFA says:

    Keep ’em coming AW1Ed. Some of us are not ‘puter literate enough to dig up this quality of stuff. The TV weather people just guess, confuse, and stands in front of the map so you can’t see. Hell I just like maps of all kinds. I am concerned for the souls that don’t have safe harbor. I am concerned for my Brothers and Sister in the Line Construction. Hunker down you Hairy Dogs.

  11. jonp says:

    We are in the path. I pulled a last few of our company trailers out of Goldsboro, NC today. All traffic on the way out only a few of us fools going south. Wish us luck

  12. jonp says:

    Those of us that are always prepared having grown up in the north with many blizzards etc and grandparents that lived through the depression scoff at the empty shelves and fights over water. We always have vehicles full of gas, 6mths food in the pantry and a garden we can vegetables out of. No power? So? We have hurricane lamps, a Coleman Powerhouse, candles and handcrank flashlights. Building supplys in the shed like shingles, 2×4’s, house wrap, tarps, tarpaper etc. Chlorine bleach for drinking water. I think we are good for however long it takes

  13. Tallywhagger says:

    Big weather is exhilarating, whether blizzards or hurricanes, being in them and forging through, aka surviving, is part of the stuff that you remember in life. You can feel the change in barometric pressure during a hurricane or when a tornado passes close by.

    Being from SW Louisiana I have been through a few hurricanes. My last two were Katrina and then Rita. By the blessing of God, I lost nothing in either of them.

    FWIW, when Katrina was closing in the price of diesel fuel was around $1.15. Afterwards, the price sky rocketed and has never recovered. Leave it to government to take advantage of an awful situation to bilk the dogshit out of us at any opportunity.

    On the uptick, post hurricane recovery brings out the best in neighborhoods and communities. Generators can carry for so long until it comes to time to cook it all and share it what you have. Some of the best BBQs and fish frys I’ve ever experienced were under compromised conditions.

    Blizzard stories can wait for another day. If I had to chose between a hurricane and a blizzard, I’ll go with the hurricane.

  14. 11B-Mailclerk says:

    Looks like Florence is wobbling out of its lane.

    Is that thing texting while driving?

  15. Hondo says:

    What worries me most about this storm is the potential for flooding, both due to storm surge and post-storm.

    As AW1Ed notes above, the storm surge from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout is predicted to be 9-13 feet. If that hits at high tide, that’s bad news over a fairly large area.

    The storm is also predicted to slow markedly when it gets near land. And it’s a large storm – so it’s bringing plenty of water in its cloud bands. That means a huge area is going to get serious rainfall.

    Portions of coastal NC are predicted to get 20-30 inches of rain. The southern 1/4 of the state is predicted to get more than 10 inches, and I’d estimate around 2/3 of the state is projected to get 6″ or more. I don’t think there are too many areas in the world that can take that much rain over a widespread area in a 2-3 day period and not see significant flooding.

    I think post-storm flooding due to Florence is going to be pretty damn bad. I hope I’m wrong.

    • Hondo says:

      Addendum: meant to include the link to this graphic in my comment above. It shows the projected potential rainfall from Florence as of 5AM today.

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0618WPCQPF+gif/093018WPCQPF_sm.gif

      I’d guess most of the rain in the eastern portion of the Carolinas will likely fall within 3 days of the storm’s landfall – some the day prior and the rest afterwards.

      • 2/17 Air Cav says:

        “I think post-storm flooding due to Florence is going to be pretty damn bad. I hope I’m wrong.”

        No, I don’t believe that you will be. In many areas in which the rains are predicted to hit, the ground is thoroughly saturated right now. VA/WV, for instance has had foot or more of rainfall this season than the average. Just a few inches more will result in serious flooding. And that stuff will come next week, after all of the juvenile excitement caused Flo is passed.

  16. Ex-PH2 says:

    I haven’t heard from Dave Hardin since he and the Soviet went sailing south before Flossie got too big for her britches. Probably has no way to charge his phone or anything else.

    Please send some positive thoughts to the Big Guy that they are safe and we will hear from Dave Hardin soon.

  17. AnotherPat says:

    “Hurricane Florence Brings Out Fake Government Workers In Virginia: Report”

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/13/hurricane-florence-brings-out-fake-government-workers-in-virginia-report.html

    “Fake government workers on Tuesday forced residents and businesses to leave evacuation zones in Virginia as Hurricane Florence continued to barrel toward the state, officials said.

    The incident prompted Norfolk city officials to send warnings to the public about these non-city affiliated individuals dressed in fluorescent vests, Virginia’s WAVY-TV reported. They went door-to-door at some residences.

    City spokeswoman Lori Crouch told the Virginian-Pilot that the agency received calls from homeowners about the flourescent vests.

    Although Zone A is under a mandatory evacuation from the state, the city would never force people to leave the evacuation zones, Crouch said.

    “That’s absolutely a personal decision,” she said.

    Businesses in the Ocean View area of the city also reported that the people in fluorescent vests told them to shut down and leave, Crouch said.

    Officials did not know why the people are trying to force residents or businesses to leave.

    No other information of the people in fluorescent vests was immediately available, but the city is investigating.”

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